Tour de Parks

First Annual Hillsboro Tour de Parks!
Sunday, September 14th, 2008 at 1:00 p.m.

Tour some of Hillsboro's parks on your bike. Bring the whole family for an enjoyable, relaxing ride. We will explore some overlooked gems of Hillsboro's city park system while learning basic bicycle road safety.


Tour de Parks

(Synopsys, HP, Nvidia, TriQuint, Solar World, Genentech, Lattice, Yahoo, Intel, FEI, Netflix, Sun Microsystems, Radisys, IDT, KLA Tencor)

Another plug for me (new listing!)

Virtual Tour

(Synopsys, HP, Nvidia, TriQuint, Solar World, Genentech, Lattice, Yahoo, Intel, FEI, Netflix, Sun Microsystems, Radisys, IDT, KLA Tencor)

A Plug for ME! (new listing)

Virtual Tour

(Synopsys, HP, Nvidia, TriQuint, Solar World, Genentech, Lattice, Yahoo, Intel, FEI, Netflix, Sun Microsystems, Radisys, IDT, KLA Tencor)

Weekly Mortgage Matters!

Keeping you updated on the market!
For the week of August 25, 2008

MARKET RECAP

When someone is surprised it means he is “not well-calibrated.” In layman’s terms, his expected range of outcomes was too narrow. That was the case last week with most economists, for their range of expected outcomes of the producer price index was too narrow. Producer price inflation hit 1.2% in July; more than double the consensus estimate. Why the economists were so wrong is puzzling, considering oil hit $147/barrel in July. That increase alone would naturally spike producer prices. Nervous economists now warn that producers will pass their energy costs on to consumers, further stoking inflation.

Or maybe not; credit markets believe otherwise. Ten-year Treasury notes continue to fall, and now yield around 3.8%, compared with 4.6% a year ago. Mortgage rates are showing signs of easing as well. The prime 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.7%, the prime 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.2%, and the prime 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage eased to 6.3%, according to Bankrate.com’s most recent survey.

These same economists also proved themselves to be “not well-calibrated” when data on new-home starts was released. Many predicted new homes would fall to a 950,000 annual rate. It didn’t; it posted at an annual rate of 965,000.

But other economists are “well-calibrated,” correctly forecasting Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s demise. It appears the end is near for Fannie’s and Freddie’s investors. The two mortgage giants have recorded almost $15 billion in combined losses in the past four quarters, decimating their capital base. Fannie’s and Freddie’s stock touched 20-year lows last week on speculation a government bailout will leave their stock worthless. (The stock symbols are FNM and FRE if you care to see how fast and furious the fall has been.)

But there is no need to worry if you’re not an investor; Fannie and Freddie aren’t going anywhere. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson won approval from Congress last month to pump emergency capital into the companies, so they will continue their primary role of buying and securitizing residential mortgages.

Is It Time to Nationalize Fannie and Freddie?

Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s impact on the mortgage market can’t be understated. Both borrow huge sums of money to buy mortgages. Their demand is a major force in setting the overall rate on standard mortgages, particularly now that many other sources of financing have evaporated. And even though both companies have recently been purchasing larger amounts of mortgages, rates on mortgage loans have stayed relatively high.

If the government believes cheaper borrowing costs are central to a housing recovery, it will have to do something to get mortgage rates to decline in line with Treasury rates. One guaranteed way to lower the spread between Treasury and mortgage rates is for the government to take over Fannie and Freddie. A takeover would lower Fannie’s and Freddie’s borrowing costs, which, in turn, would lower mortgage rates.

More competition from the private sector is another, though less timely, solution. Nationalizing Fannie and Freddie would drop mortgage rates immediately, to be sure, but few private firms would be able to match Fannie’s and Freddie’s borrowing costs. That would mean less innovation and fewer mortgage options for borrowers, and that could hurt the housing and mortgage markets in the long run.

(Synopsys, HP, Nvidia, TriQuint, Solar World, Genentech, Lattice, Yahoo, Intel, FEI, Netflix, Sun Microsystems, Radisys, IDT, KLA Tencor)

Monthly Newsletter!

Monthly Newsletter!

(Synopsys, HP, Nvidia, TriQuint, Solar World, Genentech, Lattice, Yahoo, Intel, FEI, Netflix, Sun Microsystems, Radisys, IDT, KLA Tencor)

Weekly Mortgage Matters!

Keeping you updated on the market!
For the week of August 18, 2008

Market Recap

The National Association of Realtors is on the side of Realtors, which is stating the obvious, so it tends to interpret housing data in a favorable light. For example, the NAR found in its survey of 150 metropolitan statistical areas that 35 of those areas had higher median existing single-family home prices than a year earlier. That sounds a bit better than what's been reported elsewhere in recent months.

But that's not to say the NAR won't report bad news; it will. The NAR also said that the median existing single-family home price fell 7.6% nationally in the second quarter. It blamed foreclosures and short sales -- which accounted for a third of transactions -- with pulling prices down.

It was also reported that the rate of decline is ebbing, but not from the NAR. While national price declines continue, nominal price drops have stabilized, according to housing price data released by First American CoreLogic. In fact, 883 of CoreLogic's core-based statistical areas registered no price change between June and July, according to Housingwire.com.

Good news could also be found in the consumer price index, which, at first glance, doesn't seem so good. Consumer prices rose 0.8% in July, which means the CPI is climbing at a 5.6% annual rate. The good news is that rate is unlikely to be sustained. Crude oil prices, a huge factor in rising prices, started to slide in early July, but gasoline prices didn't begin to decline until two weeks later. The big drop in energy prices in August means we should expect a significant drop in the rate of price increases in coming months.

Mortgage markets appear to agree with this assessment, for they hardly budged last week. According to Bankrate.com's weekly survey, the prime 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained unchanged at 6.74%, while the prime 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 1 basis point to 6.26%.

WINDS OF CHANGE

For most of 2008, we've been walking into a hurricane-force wind. Recent economic data suggests that the wind, if not yet at our backs, is abating: oil prices continue to drop and are now below $112/barrel. Gold prices have tumbled below
$800/ounce. The dollar continues to strengthen against the world's major currencies. Factory output is gaining steam. Major banks are easily raising capital to replace what was depleted during the subprime fiasco.

When the data points are aggregated, they suggest an improved business outlook – lower inflation, more activity – for the second half of 2008. The mortgage industry should benefit as much as any industry. Banks and other lending institutions are finally getting their houses in order, which means their ability and willingness to accept more risk will increase. An increased risk appetite means more money will be allocated to mortgage financing, which, in turn, will mean more funding options for consumers.


(Synopsys, HP, Nvidia, TriQuint, Solar World, Genentech, Lattice, Yahoo, Intel, FEI, Netflix, Sun Microsystems, Radisys, IDT, KLA Tencor)

Water: Use It Wisely - Water Conservation Tips and Resources

Water Conservation Tips and Resources

(Synopsys, HP, Nvidia, TriQuint, Solar World, Genentech, Lattice, Yahoo, Intel, FEI, Netflix, Sun Microsystems, Radisys, IDT, KLA Tencor)

RMLS: Market Action Report - July 2008

Market Action Report - July 2008








(Synopsys, HP, Nvidia, TriQuint, Solar World, Genentech, Lattice, Yahoo, Intel, FEI, Netflix, Sun Microsystems, Radisys, IDT, KLA Tencor)

Weekly Mortgage Matters!

Keeping you updated on the market!
For the week of August 11, 2008

MARKET RECAP

The more things change, the more they remain the same, or so the cliché goes. For Fannie Mae, not much is changing, but things are remaining the same. Fannie Mae continues to rack up losses and continues to slash its dividend. On the former, it posted a $2.3 billion loss in the second quarter after reporting a $2.5 billion lost in the first quarter. On the latter, the dividend was cut 86% this quarter after being cut 30% last quarter.

Fannie is in capital-raising mode, and many of us are providing the capital. One way Fannie is raising capital is by raising fees. For instance, Fannie announced last week that it is raising the “adverse market delivery” fee, which was introduced eight months ago. The original fee was $250 per $100,000 borrowed. Now the fee will double to $500 per $100,000 borrowed, meaning borrowing costs will be roughly an eighth of a point higher.

Not that we need higher borrowing costs; we don’t. Last week, the prime 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.74%, the prime 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.27%, while the 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 6.32%, according to Bankrate.com’s weekly survey.

Fortunately, the news was more upbeat in other sectors of the economy. Pending home sales rose 5.3% in June, according to the National Association of Realtors. What’s more, the rise was broad-based, occurring in all four major regions of the country. Could this be an indicator of a sustained rally off a bottom? It’s tough to say. If distressed transactions – short sales and foreclosed properties – are a lower percentage of the total, it could be.

Another positive sign for housing is falling oil prices, which dropped below
$117/barrel last week. Oil prices have tumbled 30% in the past month, and gasoline prices are now well below $4/gallon in many parts of the country. Lower commuting and energy costs make houses, suburban houses in particular, more affordable, so let’s root for still lower oil prices in coming months.

MORE COMPETITION, PLEASE
Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s influence over the mortgage market is one of many reasons we should be happy when private competition returns. At this point, Fannie and Freddie are nickel-and-diming us to death to cover their mismanagement. Worse, they are strangling segments of the market that shouldn’t be strangled, such as the market for Alt-A loans.

Yes, Alt-A and subprime loans have caused a lot of heartache over the past two years, but it wasn’t the loans, per say, that caused the heartache: It was the pricing of the loans. Lenders and investors were insufficiently compensated for risk, but that doesn’t mean that borrowers with lower credit ratings or borrowers with irregular incomes should be eliminated from the mortgage market. On the contrary, they should be part of the market. The key is to have these borrowers pay rates and fees according to the risk they impose. In other words, it’s not the product but the way the product is applied.

Fortunately, private competition for Fannie and Freddie will return, bringing more liquidity and options. It can’t return soon enough.


(Synopsys, HP, Nvidia, TriQuint, Solar World, Genentech, Lattice, Yahoo, Intel, FEI, Netflix, Sun Microsystems, Radisys, IDT, KLA Tencor)

Weekly Mortgage Matters!

Keeping you updated on the market!
For the week of August 4, 2008

MARKET RECAP

Yesterday’s housing bill is today’s housing law. Among the highlights, first-time home buyers will receive a tax credit of 10% of the purchase price of their home, up to $7,500. If you are wondering how Congress defines a first-time home buyer, it’s someone who hasn’t owned a house in the past three years. The validity and efficacy of the credit has to be questioned, because it’s really not a credit; it must be repaid in equal installments over the subsequent 15 years.

Another highlight helps people who have fallen behind on their mortgages and who owe more than their houses are worth. In such situations, refinancing is difficult, if not impossible. The law seeks to resolve this dilemma by encouraging lenders to forgive delinquent borrowers’ debt down to 87% of the property’s current appraised value. At that point the homeowner can than refinance under an FHA plan (though he or she will be expected to pay higher FHA insurance premiums).

The new law imposes few changes on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Both institutions are a mess, yet the law oddly imposes no changes in management or business approach and no penalties on shareholders. Taxpayers instead are given two dubious protections: The first is that the treasury secretary will have the right to dictate terms if the government has to stump up equity capital for the firms. The second is the creation of a new regulator, whose effectiveness one must question, considering the effectiveness of past regulators.

Outside of the housing market, general economic health is waning. U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product came in below expectations, rising 1.9% versus expectations for a 2.2% rise. Slowing GDP, in turn, is impacting employment, and not in a good way. On Friday, the employment situation showed that payrolls declined by 51,000, pushing the unemployment rate up to 5.7%.

LOWER OIL PRICES, HIGHER HOUSING PRICES

Congress is trying its darnedest to jump-start the housing market, but it’s too little, too late. The best medicine for housing, for the entire economy (housing doesn’t operate in a vacuum), is lower energy prices—lower oil and gas prices to be specific. Oil at $130/barrel and gasoline at $4/gallon are enormous drags on the economy. Both impact every facet of economic life, and current price levels are hitting middle-income families – the backbone of the housing market – particularly hard.

A drop in oil and gas prices would produce a corresponding rise in consumer confidence (a confident consumer is a spending consumer). So how do we lower prices? By increasing our supply. Market prices of oil and gas will fall on just the announcement of a likely supply increase because of the opportunity costs associated with keeping reserves in the ground. The impact to the economy would be immediate and salubrious.

We have all seen various housing districts rendered near-ghost towns because of exorbitant commuting costs, with gas prices being the primary contributor. Maybe if commuting weren’t so costly, the ghost towns wouldn’t be so ghostly.


(Synopsys, HP, Nvidia, TriQuint, Solar World, Genentech, Lattice, Yahoo, Intel, FEI, Netflix, Sun Microsystems, Radisys, IDT, KLA Tencor)

Angie's List - August 2008 Newsletter

ANGIE'S LIST

(Synopsys, HP, Nvidia, TriQuint, Solar World, Genentech, Lattice, Yahoo, Intel, FEI, Netflix, Sun Microsystems, Radisys, IDT, KLA Tencor)